20/20 Hindsight

I can blog today because my shift was canceled due to slow foot traffic caused by clouds. In Portland a cancellation due to clouds is a lot like a cancellation in Cairo due to sand. That also happened to me. A word to the wise: cloudy and cool is the best zoo weather. Why everyone waits for the hottest day of the week to flock to see animals asleep because it's too hot is beyond me.

Anyways, I'm reading a book I like. This is exciting because I don't like all books. If you don't have me in the first ten pages, you don't have me. Luckily, In the Garden of Beasts is keeping my attention nicely. Author Erik Larson tells the story of the American Ambassador to Germany during Hitler's rise. Through narration, quotes, and excerpts of letters I am learning how it was possible for Hitler to consolidate power, virtually unchecked. The U.S. could have taken several steps to oppose the suspicious developments in Germany, but for various diplomatic reasons, history unfolded as it did. The most interesting part of reading this book is knowing the ending without knowing the rest.

This has prompted some reflection about the ability to predict events. I recapped some of my Egypt stories over the weekend. One thing I tend to repeat is how surprised we all were. I remember the first days of protests, everyone thought it would die out. Ironically, given the corruption and tyranny of many Middle Eastern/North African governments it's shocking people did not revolt sooner. Okay, we couldn't predict the Arab Spring, but if we had, would U.S. policies have behaved differently? Would we have supported, politically and financially, the dictators that brutally opposed their own citizens? If we had clues would we heed them? Or would we miss, or worse, ignore the signs?

In the Garden of Beasts is convincing me that there are some things we cannot predict, they rise slowly and gradually grow out of our control. But there are the threats we can predict now, and if we can see them coming down the line, it is time to start preparing. For example, a recent Al Jazeera article reminds us that come 2030 half of the world will experience water scarcity. Conflict over "blue gold" is inevitable and has already begun. Consolidated power of some countries or groups over others will lead to unfair water advantages. Yes, climate change is exacerbating the issue immensely. A change in weather patterns leads to disrupted agriculture, increased migration and excess strain on already limited resources. Are we working to combat this, or are we waiting until conflict erupts?

Were I allowed to speak frankly to zoo guests, I would ask them to pause and plan according to the information at hand: the sun is hot, your kids are tired in the afternoon, the zoo is less enjoyable when crowded. So too I beseech those shaping security policy in this country to plan ahead, and by ahead I don't mean election cycles, I mean generations.